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My Blog

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DJIA new high up 10% / continued Bull run

Posted on December 12, 2016 at 10:31 AM Comments comments (21)
The stock market has made a dramatic move to the upside since the election, with the Dow Industrials rising more than 1800 points, or 10% in a little more than a month. This size of a rally is not unprecedented, however. It rose more in both percentage and actual points when it recovered earlier this year in January and also in the fall of 2015. Both of those advances led to some months-long consolidation periods, and we see the same thing coming for the current rally, but we are also confident that the longer-term trend will continue to be bullish. The smaller-sized growth stocks have led the Dow and S&P in performance during this most recent rally, which is a change from those previous rallies, where the FANG stocks led on the upside, and this is a positive change that should have better long-term implications, as it signals a higher level of investor confidence that is needed to support longer-term gains. Eventually, we expect the underperforming Health Care stocks to join in on the upside, but this probably won’t happen until later next year when the policies of the new administration are more apparent. Donald Dickey RBC.

7 year Crude technical chart / bounded @ $40-50 PBBL

Posted on December 7, 2016 at 1:18 PM Comments comments (53)
Crude is bounded $40-$50. RBC Technical Charts Dec 7 2016.

Crude resistance $52-53

Posted on December 1, 2016 at 2:51 PM Comments comments (26)
$43–$53. That has been the range of crude oil for the past four months, and it continues to be neutral within that range on an intermediate-term basis. The OPEC news has caused oil to rally in the short term, but if it fails to get through the ceiling of resistance in the $52–$53 area, we would expect it to roll back down to the lower end of the range once again. And so, for the oil bulls, we think it is important that this short-term strength carry through with a breakout over the next week or two. At this time, we would put the probability of a breakout at less than 50%. Many of the oil stocks have rallied on the recent optimism as a result of both the election and the OPEC meeting, which we believe makes a breakout in oil even more important to provide support to the Energy sector.

Oil on the verge......

Posted on October 20, 2016 at 3:00 PM Comments comments (114)
Oil on the Verge. The trend on the price of oil has been largely neutral for the past year in what appears to be a bottoming trend, and we think the trend would be confirmed as bullish if the oil price was to clearly close above the $52 level. Oil has topped out in the $50–$52 area three times over the past year, so we believe a breakout above that level would be a significant change from the stalling and struggle we have witnessed for quite some time. We think, on a technical basis, such a breakout would generate a target to the $75 area, and obviously would have major implications for energy-related investments and the market as a whole. The breakout hasn’t happened yet, and we think it would really need to close more than a few cents over $52 to be valid, but the recent strength has increased the likelihood a breakout may be coming, in our opinion. The next week or two will likely provide us with the answer. RBC Update Dickey Charts October 20 2016.

Oil on the line

Posted on October 9, 2016 at 12:43 PM Comments comments (14)
Oil on the Line. The trend on oil has been moving up over the past several weeks and is now up to what we believe is the critical resistance area of 50–51 that has been the high area for the past year. If oil were able to clearly break through the 51 level, the technical measure would be up to a target of 75. At this time, we would say the likelihood of a breakout is good, as the pattern of the past year appears to be that of a long bottoming range that may have longer-term bullish implications if the breakout happens. Many oil-related stocks also have similar trends in that they are generally at the high end of their ranges of the past year. So, while a breakout and rally is not certain, we think the recent action demands more attention by holders and prospective buyers of energy-related investments, with an answer to the breakout possibility likely over the next two weeks.

10 Steps for Self Care.

Posted on September 20, 2016 at 1:36 PM Comments comments (196)
1​0​  Steps for Self Care
 
According to Brad Smith. Thanks Brad.
 
Just sayin'.
 
  1. ​Trust your gut.​
  2. When in doubt, don't.
  3. Say "exactly" what you mean.
  4. Don't try to please everybody.
  5. ​​Simplify your message.​
  6. Stay away f​rom​ drama.
  7. Develop a reputation for reliability.
  8. Let go of what you can't control.
  9. Perform one random act of kindness a day.
  10. Remember:  Fair is where they tie ribbons on pigs.​



     
     

    EPCA Budapest / 30 minute free consultation

    Posted on September 18, 2016 at 4:57 PM Comments comments (130)
    During this EPCA I will be available on the Monday and Tuesday full days for consultation.

    Please email me for a free 30 minute consultation on your business needs.

    See you in Budapest.

    Propylene volatility returns USA/ drives solvents price up Q4

    Posted on September 9, 2016 at 3:04 PM Comments comments (12)
    September propylene nominations are up 7 cents/lb ($154/tonne) and 8 cents/lb ($176/tonne)

    August contract settled up 3.5 at 37.0 cents/lb due to unplanned outages. Propylene contract prices have been rising on higher spot prices, which have climbed 8-9 cents/lb since the end of July.

    According to producers, that increase has mostly been tied to tighter supply from crackers, propane dehydrogenation (PDH) units and increased exports, drawing down inventories.

    The spike in price has pulled refinery-grade propylene (RGP) prices up a lot to 32.5 more than 10-11 cents/lb in the same period. Propylene may continue to tighten because of refinery production issues in mid-August.
    This is all bad news for the value chains, due to weak demand, and the ability of customers to destock. Downstream already  there are several large 5 cent solvent price increases are set for 1 October

    Shale Rich Texas struggling

    Posted on September 9, 2016 at 2:36 PM Comments comments (22)
    Manufacturing, an economic backstop in shale-rich Texas, is witnessing a drop in payrolls in an otherwise mixed bag, the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas said."Employment reports varied across sectors," the bank said in a report. "Manufacturing and energy services firms continued to trim payrolls."Apart from oil, Texas is one of the top manufacturing states in the country and the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas said a stronger dollar, which makes U.S. goods more expensive, continued to put pressure on that part of the state economy.The bank warned earlier this year that the pressure from low oil prices was spilling over to other parts of the economy, with banks in southern U.S. states facing increasing risk. In its Beige Book, the bank said high-tech manufacturing growth was witnessed across the board, though construction-related manufacturing was mixed.The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas said that, even though drilling activity picked up across the state, demand for oilfield services declined. With oil priced in the upper $40-per-barrel range, the bank said companies tied to the oil and gas industry in the state were showing signs of distress.Karr Ingham, an economist who created a so-called petro index to gauge the health of the industry, said there were "encouraging signs" that the worst was over for the No. 1 oil producer in the country, though some metrics still suggested the state may still be skimming the bottom of a downturn.Both oil and natural gas production in Texas were down from last year, Ingham said, with oil production off 7.8 percent from July 2015."Outlooks were generally positive but cautious, with the upcoming presidential election driving some of the uncertainty," the Dallas bank said. "Several contacts said they believe the worst of the oil bust slump has passed, but that economic growth has not yet returned to normal levels."

    Improved EBITDA for EU and US Chemical Co.s

    Posted on September 3, 2016 at 4:47 PM Comments comments (45)
    Moody’s Investors Service 1 Sept upgraded its outlook for the North American and European chemicals sector to stable from negative, indicating that the credit ratings agency “[does] not expect business conditions to change significantly” in the near future. “The North American and Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) chemical industry’s EBITDA is likely to rise modestly through the end of 2017, as the benefits of modest global growth, acquisitions and cost-cutting programs are partially offset by further deterioration in a few commodity sectors,” Moody’s says. The slowdown in China is the key issue impacting commodity chemicals. Moody’s expects EBITDA for North American and European chemical makers to rise by about 1-2% through early 2018. The increase is expected to be driven by solid performance by diversified and specialty manufacturers, while commodity chemical makers lag behind. In particular, the housing and automotive markets in the US, and strong consumer demand, will drive growth, while European companies will benefit from currency impacts and restructuring. Agchems are expected to remain weak, and the ethylene chain will be hit by new capacity additions in the US ­– although as the US is now a low-cost producer, most firms are expected to remain profitable. Other commodities, such as chlor-alkali, titanium dioxide, and methanol, are showing signs of bottoming out, although the outlook is hardly rosy. A handful of commodities, such as styrene and polypropylene, have more positive outlooks, with polypropylene in particular remaining tight. China, however, is a “key risk,” according to Moody’s. “China is unlikely to provide an uplift to the chemicals industry n 2017 as it did during a period of demand weakness following the Great Recession,” Moody’s says. Lower growth in China has already put pressure on commodities due to overcapacity, and “any meaningful slowdown” would cause a rise in Chinese exports, putting further pressure on margins for commodities and intermediates, Moody’s says.Meanwhile, Moody’s expects M&A activity in the industry to “remain brisk.” Low organic growth and low interest rates are driving M&A transactions, although private equity firms will continue to be shut out of large deals due to high valuation multiples, Moody’s says. Sourced from Moodys website, Chemical Week, ACC Website and Platts.

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