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|Posted on December 12, 2016 at 10:31 AM||comments (22)|
|Posted on December 7, 2016 at 1:18 PM||comments (156)|
|Posted on December 1, 2016 at 2:51 PM||comments (26)|
$43–$53. That has been the range of crude oil for the past four months, and it continues to be neutral within that range on an intermediate-term basis. The OPEC news has caused oil to rally in the short term, but if it fails to get through the ceiling of resistance in the $52–$53 area, we would expect it to roll back down to the lower end of the range once again. And so, for the oil bulls, we think it is important that this short-term strength carry through with a breakout over the next week or two. At this time, we would put the probability of a breakout at less than 50%. Many of the oil stocks have rallied on the recent optimism as a result of both the election and the OPEC meeting, which we believe makes a breakout in oil even more important to provide support to the Energy sector.
|Posted on October 20, 2016 at 3:00 PM||comments (219)|
Oil on the Verge. The trend on the price of oil has been largely neutral for the past year in what appears to be a bottoming trend, and we think the trend would be confirmed as bullish if the oil price was to clearly close above the $52 level. Oil has topped out in the $50–$52 area three times over the past year, so we believe a breakout above that level would be a significant change from the stalling and struggle we have witnessed for quite some time. We think, on a technical basis, such a breakout would generate a target to the $75 area, and obviously would have major implications for energy-related investments and the market as a whole. The breakout hasn’t happened yet, and we think it would really need to close more than a few cents over $52 to be valid, but the recent strength has increased the likelihood a breakout may be coming, in our opinion. The next week or two will likely provide us with the answer. RBC Update Dickey Charts October 20 2016.
|Posted on October 9, 2016 at 12:43 PM||comments (92)|
Oil on the Line. The trend on oil has been moving up over the past several weeks and is now up to what we believe is the critical resistance area of 50–51 that has been the high area for the past year. If oil were able to clearly break through the 51 level, the technical measure would be up to a target of 75. At this time, we would say the likelihood of a breakout is good, as the pattern of the past year appears to be that of a long bottoming range that may have longer-term bullish implications if the breakout happens. Many oil-related stocks also have similar trends in that they are generally at the high end of their ranges of the past year. So, while a breakout and rally is not certain, we think the recent action demands more attention by holders and prospective buyers of energy-related investments, with an answer to the breakout possibility likely over the next two weeks.
|Posted on September 20, 2016 at 1:36 PM||comments (307)|
10 Steps for Self Care
According to Brad Smith. Thanks Brad.
|Posted on September 18, 2016 at 4:57 PM||comments (250)|
|Posted on September 9, 2016 at 3:04 PM||comments (90)|
August contract settled up 3.5 at 37.0 cents/lb due to unplanned outages. Propylene contract prices have been rising on higher spot prices, which have climbed 8-9 cents/lb since the end of July.
According to producers, that increase has mostly been tied to tighter supply from crackers, propane dehydrogenation (PDH) units and increased exports, drawing down inventories.
The spike in price has pulled refinery-grade propylene (RGP) prices up a lot to 32.5 more than 10-11 cents/lb in the same period. Propylene may continue to tighten because of refinery production issues in mid-August.
This is all bad news for the value chains, due to weak demand, and the ability of customers to destock. Downstream already there are several large 5 cent solvent price increases are set for 1 October
|Posted on September 9, 2016 at 2:36 PM||comments (115)|
Manufacturing, an economic backstop in shale-rich Texas, is witnessing a drop in payrolls in an otherwise mixed bag, the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas said."Employment reports varied across sectors," the bank said in a report. "Manufacturing and energy services firms continued to trim payrolls."Apart from oil, Texas is one of the top manufacturing states in the country and the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas said a stronger dollar, which makes U.S. goods more expensive, continued to put pressure on that part of the state economy.The bank warned earlier this year that the pressure from low oil prices was spilling over to other parts of the economy, with banks in southern U.S. states facing increasing risk. In its Beige Book, the bank said high-tech manufacturing growth was witnessed across the board, though construction-related manufacturing was mixed.The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas said that, even though drilling activity picked up across the state, demand for oilfield services declined. With oil priced in the upper $40-per-barrel range, the bank said companies tied to the oil and gas industry in the state were showing signs of distress.Karr Ingham, an economist who created a so-called petro index to gauge the health of the industry, said there were "encouraging signs" that the worst was over for the No. 1 oil producer in the country, though some metrics still suggested the state may still be skimming the bottom of a downturn.Both oil and natural gas production in Texas were down from last year, Ingham said, with oil production off 7.8 percent from July 2015."Outlooks were generally positive but cautious, with the upcoming presidential election driving some of the uncertainty," the Dallas bank said. "Several contacts said they believe the worst of the oil bust slump has passed, but that economic growth has not yet returned to normal levels."
|Posted on September 3, 2016 at 4:47 PM||comments (265)|